Rumours about the exact day of Eid-ul-Fitr grow stronger as Ramadan draws to a close. Moon sightings are subject to ambiguity every year as various organisations assert contradicting assertions. But Khalid Ijaz Mufti, Secretary-General of the Ruet-e-Hilal Research Council, has offered scientific and astrological analysis projecting that Pakistan would probably celebrate Eid-ul-Fitr on March 31.

Mufti says Shawwal's new moon will be born on March 29 at 3:58 PM (Pakistan Standard Time). The crescent must be at least 18 hours old and show a minimum gap of 40 minutes between sunset and moonset to be seen. The moon's age will be more than 26 hours over Pakistan on March 30, when moon sighting is forecast, hence it would be readily seen assuming the skies stay clear.

On March 30, the time difference between sunset and moonset varies depending on the city: Karachi (69 minutes), Gwadar (71 minutes), Quetta and Lahore (74 minutes), Islamabad (76 minutes), Peshawar and Muzaffarabad (77 minutes), and Gilgit (78 minutes). Mufti is sure the moon will be seen under these favourable circumstances, thereby allowing Eid on Monday, March 31.

Dealing with frequent misunderstandings, Mufti clarified why the crescent sometimes seems thicker when seen after a day's delay. Should the moon be seen on March 29, it would be just an hour old—too young for the unaided eyes.

But by March 30, the moon will seem more noticeable, as its age is around 51 hours. This often results in public uncertainty as individuals conjecture about whether an additional fast was noted.

Mufti further pointed out that whereas for 10 other Islamic months, worldwide sightings generally coincide, moon sighting conflicts often develop during Ramadan and Shawwal.

The problem arises from different approaches; Saudi Arabia arranges events after sunset, while it declares the new month just after the birth of the moon. This sometimes results in early Eid celebrations in nations such as Afghanistan and areas of Pakistan that follow Saudi Arabia.

Although scientific evidence largely points to March 31 as Eid-ul-Fitr's date, the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee will have the final say.

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